Read this in The Manila Times digital edition.
THIS is in response to the column titled “The reliability double standard” written by Mr. Ben Kritz, published on Jan. 27, 2026. While Mr. Kritz raises legitimate concerns about energy security, the piece conflates reliability with baseload capacity and misrepresents how the Philippine power system actually operates. More importantly, it overlooks the structural causes of today’s reliability challenges baseload overcapacity, inflexible contracts and poor risk allocation — while unfairly placing blame on renewable energy.
1. For decades, Philippine power planning assumed electricity demand to be largely constant, justifying heavy investment in baseload generation. In reality, electricity demand varies significantly by hour and season, peaking between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. Analysis of the 2024 Luzon load profile shows off-peak demand, which is the basis of baseload capacity requirements, ranges from 6,000 to 9,000 megawatts (MW) while dependable baseload capacity exceeds 12,300 MW. This dependable baseload capacity is nearly equal to the system’s peak demand of about 13,700 MW, representing baseload overcapacity. This forces coal plants to ramp up and down daily, operating outside their optimal design parameters, which can result in accelerated wear and tear, degraded performance and increased forced outages, even exceeding the Energy Regulatory Commission allowable outage limit.
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