MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Senate is set to open Vice President Sara Duterte's impeachment trial today, Monday, with her political career — and a planned 2028 presidential run — in the balance.
More than 6,000 police officers, including anti-riot squads, were deployed to secure the Senate, where pro-and anti-Duterte demonstrators were expected to converge. Duterte or her lawyers can appear at the start of the trial, which will run for 92 days, according to a pretrial plan seen by The Associated Press.
The House of Representatives impeached the 48-year-old daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte on May 11, 2026 on allegations of graft, corruption, bribery and an alleged assassination plot against one-time ally President Ferdinand Marcos.
But only a guilty verdict by two-thirds of the bitterly divided 24-seat Senate can strip her of the vice presidency and permanently bar her from elected office.
Impeachment prosecutor Representative Gerville "Jinky" Luistro has argued the threshold should only include senators who are physically present.
Even if the formula were adjusted, however, Cleve Arguelles of pollster WR Numero told AFP he did not believe the numbers were there to convict.
"I think it's quite clear that there is a very difficult pathway to conviction," he said.
"Whether we're talking about 16 (senators)... or other interpretations, it's still quite far from the conviction threshold."
A public survey released in late May showed Duterte as the front-runner in the 2028 race, with 51 percent of respondents saying they planned to vote for her.
The articles of impeachment focus on misappropriation of public funds, unexplained assets, bribery of public officials and the alleged death threat against Marcos and other family members.
The threat against Marcos stemmed from a late-night news briefing in which Duterte claimed to have hired an assassin to kill the president should he have her cut down first.
She later said the comments had been misinterpreted.
Duterte's camp has yet to indicate if she will attend the trial in person.
Senate turmoil
The Senate tasked with weighing the case against Duterte has spent two months in turmoil.
In May, 13 lawmakers allied with Duterte took control of the Senate barely an hour before the House impeachment vote, a move that was later reversed amid a boycott by the vice president's allies.
One of those allies, Senator Ronald Dela Rosa – enforcer of her father's bloody drug crackdown – briefly took refuge in the Senate building as officers attempted to execute an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against him.
He disappeared after a tense standoff that saw Senate security guards fire shots.
On Monday, Senator Rodante Marcoleta surrendered to authorities over corruption charges tied to his alleged failure to declare 75 million pesos ($1.2 million) in unused election campaign funds.
Another pro-Duterte senator, Jose "Jinggoy" Estrada, was arrested on June 1 for allegedly receiving kickbacks worth more than 573 million pesos over a flood control project.
Dynasties at stake
While President Marcos has taken care to publicly distance himself from the impeachment process, it has unfolded against the backdrop of a blistering political brawl between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties.
Cracks in the fragile alliance began showing within weeks of their landslide 2022 presidential election victory.
The feud exploded into open warfare in 2025 with Duterte's first impeachment -- later overturned by the Supreme Court -- and the subsequent arrest and transfer of her father to face crimes against humanity charges at the ICC.
"All of these factions are fighting for their political futures," Arguelles said.
"For the Marcos administration, it's the fact that as soon as they get out of power... they have to make sure that the next administration won't go after them."
And even if Duterte avoids conviction, she is unlikely to emerge unscathed after months of intense public scrutiny, according to Arguelles.
The allegations against her could cost Duterte "at the very least, the support of the independents or the moderates," he said.
Marcos and the Dutertes have contrasting geopolitical leanings. Marcos has expanded defense engagements with the United States, his country's treaty ally, as his administration stood up to China's increasingly aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea.
Rodrigo Duterte had nurtured cozy ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin while threatening to sever ties with Washington. The vice president has come under fire for not condemning China's assaults, including with the use of powerful water cannons, against Filipino forces and fishermen in the disputed waters.